4/13/2022

Tommy, who is one of my blog readers asked how to calculate payout percentage of any given slot machine after reading this slot strategies article. I started writing a reply to his question in the comment, but the answer turned out much longer than I had initially planned so I decided to dedicate the answer a full post I believe it deserves.

Of the payouts on a machine. It is presented on the PAR wo rk s heta numb. T g, mor v l at ihc n s. For example, say that a customer inserts a $100 bill and plays $100 of credits on a machine. According to the PAR worksheet, the theoretical payback percentage is 92%. If the machine behaves perfectly (which would most likely not be true in real. Of course even playing the games with the highest payout percentage does not guarantee you walking away a winner. Luck is still the key factor. What about slots with payouts advertised at 99.9%? This is more of an advertising stunt by casinos than anything else. Even playing a slot machine with a payout percentage of 100% you would not always win. Dan from Communication Group 34 takes you through the rules and mathematics of Casino slot Machines!Hub Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOl-ycNvSE.

Please note that the payout percentage can only be calculated this way if each spin is completely random. The only way you can be sure it’s completely random is if you play in a casino, which is licensed by a jurisdiction dictating the outcome of each slot spin must NOT be predetermined, it has to be completely random. Casinos bound by this restriction are all legally operating casinos in Las Vegas and Atlantic City as well as most licensed online casinos.

In order to calculate payout percentage on a slot machine with completely random RNG (Random Number Generator), you need to know 2 things beforehand: occurrence of all symbols on each reel and paytable. In a very simplistic example suppose we have a slot machine with 3 reels and with only 2 symbols

and

Total number of symbols on each reel is 3: 2xBAR and 1xSeven


Payout table shows 2 winning combinations for each $1 bet as follows:

wins $1
wins $15

First we need calculate the probability of each combination:

How

For 3xBAR the probability is 2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3 = 0.3
For 3xSeven the probability is 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 = 0.037

Note that the probability to get BAR on 1 reel is 2 out of 3 times, hence 2/3 in the formula and for Seven it’s 1 out of 3 (1/3)

We multiplied probabilities 3 times because the combination is made up from 3 times the symbol.

Now we can calculate the payout of each combination:

For 3xBAR the payout is $1 * 0.3 = $0.3
For 3xSeven the payout is $15 * 0.037 = $0.56

Finally we add the payouts of each combination together to get the total payout:

$0.3 + $0.56 = $0.86

Since we payout we just calculated is for $1 nomination (according to the paytable) then the payout for this nomination is $0.86 (each time we bet $1, on average we win back $0.86) or in other words the payout for $1 nomination is 86% (without bonus game or progressive jackpot)

Note that payout percentage can vary depending on the nomination. Higher nominations often offer better payback.

If the slot game has a bonus round, we also need to take that into account and start by calculating the probability of getting into the bonus round. Then multiply it with the average amount you can win at the bonus round and add the result to the total payout.

Suppose in our example 3xSeven puts us into a bonus round where we are given a choice of 3 pots of gold. If we choose the right one, we win additional $3

On average we would win 1 out of 3 times in the bonus round. Since the win amount is $3, then the total amount we would win on average is 1/3 * $3 = $1 each time we get to the bonus round.

Since we have already calculated the probability to get to the bonus round (3xSeven = 0.037), then we can add another $1 * 0.037 = $0.037 to the total payout which now stands at $0.86 + $0.037 = $0.90. Now that we have taken the bonus round into account, the total payout is 90%.

If it’s a progressive slot, we need to multiply the probability to hit the jackpot with the jackpot amount and add the result to the total payout as well.

Suppose the probability to hit the progressive is one in a million and the jackpot is $10 000

1/1 000 000 * $10 000 = $0.01

After adding it to the total payout, we get $0.9 + $0.01 = $0.91 or 91% payout.

Suppose the progressive jackpot is $100 000 instead

1/1 000 000 * $100 000 = $0.1

After adding it to the total payout, we get $0.9 + $0.1 = $1 or in other words 100% payout.

If you were an advantage gambler who has done the homework like we just did here, you would know that whenever the progressive on this slot machine reaches $100 000, the total payout percentage reaches 100%, at which point playing on that slot machines becomes profitable in the long run. ‘A long run’ in this case would probably mean a few million spins, but you would be guaranteed to make profit if you had a sufficient bankroll and a lot of patience (or an army of apes pulling levers).

As you can see the math behind calculating the slot machine payout is quite simple. The most difficult part of the whole process is probably finding the information regarding the occurrence of each symbol on the reel as casinos don’t tend to publish this simply because an average gambler has no need for this type of information.

If you have any questions, feel free to post them as comments and I’ll try answer them as best as I can.

UPDATE: Tommy asked how to calculate the keno video slot payout percentage, so I figured I’d throw it in here as well.

I have to admit I’m not a big fan of keno video slotmachines myself, but I believe I have a fairly good understanding how they work.

Suppose we mark 3 spots. First we need to calculate the total number of ways possible to draw 3 balls out of 80.

80/1* 79/2 * 78/3 = 82 160

Notice we substract 1 after each draw. That’s because the ball we just drew cannot be drawn again, it’s now out of the “bubble”.

Since the game draws 20 winning balls, we have to calculate the total number of ways 3 spots can be amongst the winning 20.

How Are Slot Machine Payouts Calculated

How Are Slot Machine Payouts Calculated Cash

20/1 * 19/2 * 18/3 = 1140

How Are Slot Machine Payouts Calculated

The probability to hit all 3 spots is therefore 1140/82160 = 0.0139 or 1.39%

Suppose the paytable shows $40 prize for hitting all 3 on a $1 bet. The payout for hitting 3 spots out of 3 is then $40 * 0.0139 = $0.56

Suppose paytable is generous enough to award us $2 should we hit 2 spots out of 3 with every $1 bet.

The total number of ways to hit 2 spots out of the winning 20 is 20/1 * 19/2 = 190 and the total number of ways possible, that 1 ball remains amongst the 60 that don’t get drawn, is 60/1 = 60. This means there are a total of 190*60 = 11 400 different possible ways to draw 2 winning balls and 1 losing ball.

We already calculated there are 82 160 possible ways to draw 3 balls, therefore probability to draw 2 winning + 1 losing ball is 11400/82160 = 0.14

This adds another $2 * 0.14 = $0.28 to the total payout which is now at $0.56 + $0.28 = $0.84. That means the total payout is 84% for $1 card played with 3 spots.

If the paytable is the same for both 1- and 20-card version, the payout percentage remains unaffected so whether you play 1-card keno 20 times or 20-card keno once, it doesn’t really matter.

So who pays for those Volcanic eruptions? Pirate Battles? Carnival Parades? and Glittering Showrooms? Slot Machines. 60-65% of casino revenue is generated by those bell-ringing one armed bandits that seem to multiply on casino floors like rabbits. So how does the average player gain an advantage and possibly win? Well... aside from cheating (which we really don't suggest you get involved in) the only way to gain some sort of advantage is to choose your slots with utmost care and discrimination.

Slot machines in Las Vegas are required by law to payout 75% of the money that goes into them, actual payout in Las Vegas is approximately 95%. Will you be the one that takes the money instead of gives it? That is up to luck, but with a little investigation one can easily learn to identify which machines are more favorable to the player than others. Slot machines are all about the payout... Red White and Blue, Double Diamond, Dick Fucking Clark, Cherry whatever. At the end of the day what every slot player needs to do is look at the pay schedule on the machine they want to play. Very often the same machine one row over will pay 5,000 credits on 3rd credit jackpot while you're playing on a 2,000 3rd credit machine. Plain and simple you're cheating yourself.


Slot Spotlights

A few notable slot machines we here at VT have found more playable, or more interesting, than the other nonsense out there like Leprachaun's Gold or Tabasco Slots or whatever.

We like machines that have the best payouts on the lowest winning spins. These will keep you going longer between larger wins and not enact the ATM-In-Reverse principle seen at many of the larger joints (Venetian being the worst we've experienced).

100 or Nothing
Red, White and Blue
Slot Machine Jackpots Photo Gallery
Wheel of Fortune
Wild Cherry


Slot Machine Payback Percentages

How Are Slot Machine Payouts Calculated Per

Below are the slot payback percentages for Nevada's fiscal year beginning July 1, 2002 and ending June 30, 2003:

5¢ Slot Machines
The Strip - 90.32%
Downtown - 91.50%
Boulder Strip - 93.03%
N. Las Vegas - 92.97%
25¢ Slot Machines
The Strip - 92.59%
Downtown - 94.83%
Boulder Strip - 96.47%
N. Las Vegas - 96.63%
$1 Slot Machines
The Strip - 94.67%
Downtown - 95.35%
Boulder Strip - 96.48%
N. Las Vegas - 97.21%

$1 Megabucks Machines
The Strip - 89.12%
Downtown - 88.55%
Boulder Strip - 87.76%
N. Las Vegas - 89.41%
$5 Slot Machines
The Strip - 95.33%
Downtown - 95.61%
Boulder Strip - 96.53%
N. Las Vegas - 96.50%
All Slot Machines
The Strip - 93.85%
Downtown - 94.32%
Boulder Strip - 95.34%
N. Las Vegas - 95.32%


The Math of Casino Slot Machines

For every dollar you wager in a slot machine, you will lose 100% - Payback% of that dollar. For example, you're at Bellagio playing the $1 Double Diamond slot, wagering Two Credits ($2) per spin. According to the table, for every $2 spin you will lose 5.33% of that bet... just shy of 11¢. Granted these 11 cents don't get extracted instantly... this is computed over time. So if your bank roll limit is $10 it will take you, on average 52 spins before your bankroll is toast (under $1) and you are out of credits.

How was this number derived:

STAKE x (Payback Percentages) = STAKE x (Payback Percentages) = STAKE x (Payback Percentages) = ...
Repeat calculation until the number gets below the minimum bet - if you play long enough, you're gonna go broke. THAT is a FACT. Slot machines are entertaining, relaxing, require little thought beyond pressing a button. IF you want to truly GAMBLE, you might want to look into Video Poker, and eventually Blackjack as other options.

How Are Slot Machine Payouts Calculated Jackpot

Granted, sometime in there you just might hit that $500 win on the Wheel of Fortune, or The Elvis progressive might shake rattle and roll $1000 your way... but the math inside the machine determines that you will in fact lose a certain percentage of your wager on each spin, and the more you spin... the more you will lose despite short runs of successful jackpots. If you find you are UP... leave. Every spin of a slot machine generates a random number that has NOTHING to do with previous numbers. SLOT MACHINES do NOT run in streaks (even if you might wish to think they do). Don't expect to get any of the money you put into a machine out of it unless you learn to press the CASH OUT button.

Gamblers Library

VT fully recommends the following books to help you decrease the house advantage on casino card games.

How Are Slot Machine Payouts Calculated Money

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